Research-first prediction-market intelligence

Smart money leaves a trail. We hand you the receipts.

We track live Polymarket wallets with strong public records, rank the research that comes out of them, and publish every result on paper — wins and losses — so you can check our work. An AI research assistant answers your questions in plain English, 24/7.

Research and education only. Not financial advice.

Polymarket · live oddsMarkets watched
5m · 1h · 24hResearch windows
Paper-gradedWins & losses
Live Polymarket data Ranked research signals AI research assistant Paper results — wins & losses Risk note on every card
Why people stay

Why people stay in the Discord

Four things the community runs on — all real, all built to be checked, none of them a tip to act on.

Live smart-money tracking

We watch a curated set of profitable Polymarket wallets — from a public leaderboard and a hand-built watchlist. When tracked money moves, you see the market, the side, the odds, and the wallet's public record. Proof attached, every time.

Ranked research signals, not noise

Raw wallet activity becomes a ranked signal: the exact market question, the side taken, entry odds, a timestamp, and a risk note. Framed as research you can verify — never as an instruction to act.

An AI research assistant, on call

@mention the assistant in Discord and ask anything — how implied probability works, what a signal means, why a wallet qualified. It answers from a curated knowledge base in plain English, and tells you when something is outside what it knows instead of guessing.

Receipts you can check

Every signal is paper-graded when its market resolves — hypothetical, no real money — and the misses stay on the board next to the wins. Credibility is the product, so the losing calls don't get quietly deleted.

How it works

A read-only research pipeline you can audit

Watch, rank, grade. No predictions dressed up as certainty — and we never place a trade or touch a market.

  1. STEP 01

    Watch live wallets

    We monitor profitable Polymarket wallets — from a public leaderboard and a curated watchlist — reading live odds straight from the public market APIs. We never place a trade or touch a market.

  2. STEP 02

    Rank the research signal

    When tracked money takes a position, we enrich it — market, side, entry odds, the wallet's public record, a risk note — tag the category and timeframe, and post it as a ranked research note in Discord.

  3. STEP 03

    Grade it on paper

    When the market resolves, the entry odds are graded against the real outcome to produce a paper result — wins and losses, with the sample size shown. Nothing is hidden.

The alert format

What the alerts look like

Calm, specific, numbered. Odds in plain figures so nothing hides behind vague language. Each card carries its own risk note — and the losses stay up.

PoliticsIllustrative

Fed cuts rates at the July meeting?

SideYES
Entry odds0.11 · 11¢
Window24h

Long-shot pricing — wallet has a strong macro record, but resolution risk is high.

CryptoIllustrative

ETH trades above $4,000 by end of Q3?

SideNO
Entry odds0.38 · 38¢
Window1h

Counter-trend position. Tracked wallet is fading momentum — size and conviction unknown.

CryptoIllustrative

Bitcoin sets a new all-time high this month?

SideYES
Entry odds0.27 · 27¢
Window5m

Early entry, thin liquidity. Implied 27% chance — not a prediction it happens.

Cards above are illustrative examples of the alert format. Numbers are not live and not financial advice.

The receipts

We publish the wins and the losses

A highlight reel is easy to fake, so the misses stay on the board. This is the public accuracy scorecard — paper results, with the sample size shown.

Public scorecard Live
72.7% paper hit-rate
(resolved markets)
11Calls graded
8Wins
3Losses
17Wallets tracked
Wins Losses (kept on the board)

Tracked paper results, not financial advice. Past results do not guarantee future outcomes. Reported as counts and sample sizes — never as a return or profit claim.

YESFed cuts rates in July?
0x7a3f…9c92resolved 2d ago
11¢
entry
Verified win
NOETH above $4k by Q3?
0x44c9…7f80resolved 6h ago
38¢
entry
Loss
YESTrump wins Iowa primary?
0x2b8e…41afresolved 4d ago
71¢
entry
Verified win
YESBTC new ATH this month?
0x9f1e…d3c4logged 22m ago
27¢
entry
Pending
Pricing

Free builds the funnel. Paid sells the timing edge.

Every tier is research and education only. We never trade on your behalf, hold your funds, or tell you what to bet. The lever is real-time access — free runs on a short delay.

Free
$0/mo

The front door. Genuinely useful — join in one click.

  • Discord #free-signals + public Telegram channel
  • Most signals — generous daily volume
  • Short delay (~30–60 min)
  • Market + side + confidence + 1-line reasoning
  • Public accuracy scorecard + AI research assistant
Join the Discord
Coming soon
Pro
$50/mo

For heavy research and programmatic use. Rolling out as we grow — not on sale yet.

  • Everything in Premium, plus a signals API key
  • /v1/signals — real-time + historical
  • Structured JSON: edge, whale-flow, scorecard
  • Raw resolved outcomes via API
  • Priority spot on the automation-research waitlist
Coming soon

First month 20% off with code NEXUSFRIEND20 at checkout.

All tiers deliver research and education only. Past results do not guarantee future outcomes.

FAQ

Questions, answered plainly

Is this financial advice?
No. Nexus Signals is research and education only. Nothing we publish — signals, rankings, paper results, the leaderboard, or anything the assistant says — is financial advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to trade or bet. You are solely responsible for your own decisions.
Do you trade for me, run managed accounts, or do copy trading?
No. We never place trades, hold funds, manage money, or trade on your behalf. We publish research; what you do with it is entirely up to you. We don't even advise copying the tracked wallets — they can and do lose.
Do you promise returns, a win rate, or passive income?
No. Nothing here is guaranteed. We make no return claims and no income claims — anyone who does should worry you. We publish tracked paper results, including losses, precisely so you can judge the research on evidence instead of promises.
What is the AI research assistant?
A Discord bot you @mention to ask questions about prediction markets and how a signal was generated. It answers from a curated knowledge base in plain English, declines to give buy/sell/bet guidance, and tells you when something is outside its knowledge instead of guessing.
Which markets do you cover?
Polymarket, where on-chain wallets can be tracked, plus Kalshi market data. Markets are tagged by category — politics, sports, crypto, business, and more — and by timeframe, with alerts across short and long windows (5m, 1h, 24h).
What do the odds mean?
A contract price between $0 and $1 reads as the market's implied probability. "NO @ 0.50" means the NO side was trading around 50 cents — about a 50% implied chance at that moment. It's the market's live opinion, not a guarantee.
What's the difference between free and paid?
Free is genuinely useful — most signals, a short delay, and a real one-line "why." Premium ($25) is the same research in real time, with full detail: live price, calibrated probability, edge vs fair value, and whale-flow. The paywall is timing and depth, not a secret feed. A Pro tier ($50) with a signals API key is coming as we grow.
Is the automation live? What's the Pro waitlist?
No — automation is not live, and we won't claim it is until it's been benchmarked transparently. The Pro tier (coming as we grow) will include a priority spot on the automation-research waitlist: you get the benchmark research as it happens and early access if and when automation tooling ships.
Start free

Start with the free Discord

Join free, watch the research, ask the assistant, and check our paper results yourself. Upgrade only if it earns it.

Research and education only. Not financial advice. Past results do not guarantee future outcomes.